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Yahoo
26 minutes ago
- Business
- Yahoo
'Earnings misses are going to get punished more than usual': Wall Street raises the stakes as stocks hit records
Earnings season is in full swing, and Wall Street has a clear message to companies: Good just isn't good enough. Market action this week reinforced that growing thesis, with big banks like JPMorgan (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC) ending the week with muted gains despite solid earnings and a message of consumer resilience. Netflix (NFLX), which currently trades at roughly 40 times forward earnings, a steep premium to the broader market and even many of its tech peers, faced an even sharper reaction. Shares fell 5% on Friday despite the streaming giant reporting a beat on both the top and bottom lines and raising its full-year guidance. "An overall 'good' set of results and guide were not good enough for elevated expectations,' William Blair analyst Ralph Schackart wrote in a reaction to the Netflix report. That disconnect between performance and price reaction isn't isolated. As earnings season ramps up, the broader market is contending with elevated valuations and a growing sense that even strong results may not be enough to justify current levels. "The biggest risk right now is valuation," Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, told Yahoo Finance on Friday. "When we look at the fundamentals, I think that those will be improving. But how much are you paying for those fundamentals?" Companies entered this earnings season with lowered expectations, shaped by growing uncertainties around tariffs, policy, and the path of interest rates. According to FactSet, analysts initially projected just under 5% earnings growth for the S&P 500 (^GSPC) in the second quarter. That estimate rose to 5.6% on Friday as more companies reported stronger-than-expected results. If that number holds, it would still mark the slowest pace of profit growth since Q4 2023. So far, 83% of S&P 500 companies that have reported topped second quarter EPS estimates, above the five-year average of 78%. Still, the average earnings surprise of 7.9% lags the five-year norm of 9.1%. And with a relatively easy bar to clear, strategists warn that investors are showing little patience for any stumbles. "I expect that we're going to be seeing a lot of volatility," Jacobsen said. "Earnings misses are going to get punished a lot more than usual. I don't think investors have the patience to really deal with companies that are missing any of those estimates." Stocks are currently trading at record highs after staging a historic comeback since Trump's initial "Liberation Day" tariff threats in April, which briefly triggered a sharp sell-off after he pledged sweeping duties on some of the US's largest trading partners. The White House later softened its stance, first granting a 90-day extension and then pushing the deadline again to Aug. 1. That walk-back fueled a familiar narrative on Wall Street — the so-called TACO trade, an acronym for "Trump Always Chickens Out." The phrase captures a belief among some investors that the president often talks tough on tariffs but rarely follows through. That assumption has helped fuel a tailwind for markets in recent months as traders increasingly bet on last-minute policy pivots. But even as markets rally on hopes of policy reversals, the underlying uncertainty hasn't gone away. Mark Malek, chief investment officer at Siebert Financial, told Yahoo Finance on Friday that as earnings season continues, investors will have a clearer view of how tariff-sensitive industries are holding up in this environment. "All the flags are heading in the right direction — for now," he said, emphasizing the uncertainty heading into the next wave of earnings. "We know [tariff-related inflation] is going to be a headwind. Either it's going to cost corporations in earnings or it's going to come right to the consumer," he said. "The market's trying to trying to digest all of this, and so far it's done a good job. But I think there's another shoe to drop soon." Allie Canal is a Senior Reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X @allie_canal, LinkedIn, and email her at Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
26 minutes ago
- Business
- Yahoo
I Asked ChatGPT To Explain Trump's ‘Big Beautiful Bill' To Me Like I'm 12 — Here's What It Said
I'm no stranger to sweeping legislation. I have 30 years of combined experience covering politics and state government, advocating for healthcare and education nonprofits, and negotiating policy from both sides of the table. Discover More: Try This: However, when President Donald Trump unveiled his 'Big Beautiful Bill,' even I had to pause. What exactly is in it? What's at stake for everyday people now and in the future? I asked ChatGPT to cut through the noise and condense sprawling policy documents to provide me with a clear, emotionally neutral summary. In other words, I asked ChatGPT to explain it in a way that I would understand, as if I were a 12-year-old. Here's what it said. It's All In the Branding There's no official legislation called the 'Big Beautiful Bill.' According to ChatGPT, it's a branding phrase Trump used to signal his agenda. It includes tax cuts, deep rollbacks, and restructuring of social safety nets, carrying significant implications for energy, education, and public debt. Read Now: What Does It Mean for Average Americans? One of my first questions while reviewing any public policy, including Trump's budget bill, is how it would affect regular citizens. Same with ChatGPT. I asked how Trump's 'Big Beautiful Bill' would affect average Americans. It said that workers could see slightly larger paychecks if payroll taxes are reduced. However, there's a catch. 'Those same payroll taxes fund programs like Social Security and Medicare, and without a replacement funding mechanism, the long-term stability of those benefits could be in jeopardy,' ChatGPT said. 'We've seen versions of this play out before: short-term relief, long-term risk.' Healthcare on the Chopping Block For those who rely on the Affordable Care Act, it could bring significant disruption. According to ChatGPT, 'Trump has repeatedly signaled interest in dismantling parts of the ACA. That could mean higher premiums, fewer protections for people with preexisting conditions, and a market-wide ripple effect for anyone who buys insurance independently or through the exchanges.' While the bill doesn't eliminate the ACA outright, it lays the groundwork for targeted rollbacks that could weaken coverage and affordability. For millions of Americans, especially gig workers, freelancers, and early retirees, this isn't just a policy; it's a potential threat to their health and finances. Student Debt Relief Could Disappear Tucked into the Big Beautiful Bill are provisions that would unwind key aspects of the Biden administration's student debt relief efforts. While not framed explicitly as an attack on borrowers, the bill signals a sharp policy reversal, one that could shut down or restrict forgiveness programs and income-driven repayment options. According to ChatGPT, 'If you have student loans or are counting on forgiveness programs, they could disappear overnight. The bill includes a rollback of debt relief efforts and the potential return of higher interest rates for federal loans. And if you're a parent planning for college, the financial aid landscape could shift beneath your feet.' Social Security Is Fine Until It Isn't While the Big Beautiful Bill doesn't explicitly cut Social Security, its structural changes to payroll taxes and entitlement spending raise serious questions about long-term funding. By lowering or eliminating certain employer-employee tax obligations, the bill could weaken the primary revenue stream that supports Social Security's solvency. ChatGPT explained: 'Reducing payroll taxes without a clear replacement funding mechanism puts pressure on programs like Social Security and Medicare. Even if benefits aren't cut immediately, the financial sustainability of those programs becomes more fragile.' For retirees and future beneficiaries alike, this isn't just theoretical. A weakened Social Security trust fund could lead to delayed payments, reduced benefits, or increased retirement age, all of which disproportionately affect low-income earners and workers with physically demanding jobs. The Real Power Play From an AI and systems-thinking perspective, the 'Big Beautiful Bill' revealed something deeper: it's not just about the policies; it's about who benefits from speed and opacity. According to ChatGPT: 'Wealthy donors and corporate lobbyists can plan for these changes before they hit. They have access, leverage, and legal teams. The average worker? They're just trying to make rent and keep the lights on.' With a degree of self-awareness, ChatGPT said. 'While AI can help decode the structure, it can't shield anyone from the real-world consequences. That's why clarity, accountability, and deliberate scrutiny still matter. Because in a system where speed favors power, the rest of us need time to see clearly, before the ground shifts beneath our feet.' More From GOBankingRates Clever Ways To Save Money That Actually Work in 2025 This article originally appeared on I Asked ChatGPT To Explain Trump's 'Big Beautiful Bill' To Me Like I'm 12 — Here's What It Said
Yahoo
26 minutes ago
- Health
- Yahoo
Your organs have their own age – and it may predict health risks better than your birthday
If you've always thought your birthday was the best way to define how old you are, think again. Your organs, it turns out, are aging on their own schedules. A growing body of scientific research is shifting focus from chronological age to biological age, where your body's roughly 30 trillion cells, tissues and organs each have their own 'clocks' that can tick at different speeds. According to a groundbreaking peer-reviewed study published last week in Nature Medicine, Stanford University researchers found that an organ that is substantially 'older' than a person's actual age is at greater risk of disease. Researchers tracked this hidden timeline by analyzing thousands of proteins flowing through our blood. The body's cells, tissues and organs all have different 'clocks' ticking at different speeds (Getty Images) 'With this indicator, we can assess the age of an organ today and predict the odds of your getting a disease associated with that organ 10 years late,' Tony Wyss-Coray, a professor of neurology and neurological sciences at the university's Wu Tsai Neurosciences Institute, said in a statement. Take the brain, for example: an older one increases your risk of death by about 182 percent within the next 15 years, compared with people whose brains are aging normally, researchers found. On the flip side, those with brains biologically younger than their chronological age are believed to live longer. The study's authors concluded that having an older brain increased the risk of dementia threefold, while those with youthful brains have just a quarter of the usual risk. 'The brain is the gatekeeper of longevity,' Wyss-Coray said. 'If you've got an old brain, you have an increased likelihood of mortality.' An older biological heart age was linked to a higher risk of atrial fibrillation and heart failure, while aging lungs signaled an increased likelihood of developing chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). While your chronological age only goes up, the good news is that biological age can be slowed, paused or even reversed. Forty-year-old soccer star Cristiano Ronaldo has an estimated biological age of just under 29, according to data from the health tech brand Whoop. Bryan Johnson has documented his journey to reverse his biological age to that of a teenager (Dustin Giallanza) Kim Kardashian may be blowing out 44 candles on her next birthday but her biological age came in nearly a decade younger, according to results from an epigenetic clock test taken on The Kardashians last year. Meanwhile, Bryan Johnson, 47, the anti-aging tech guru and 'biohacker,' has documented his bizarre journey in an attempt to reverse his biological age to that of a teenager. You don't need to be into biohacking to change your organ's age — they can shift depending on a variety of factors, including your genes, how much you move, what you eat, your sleep habits and how you manage stress. Regular exercise, good nutrition and avoiding harmful habits like smoking all contribute to younger organ age and better health outcomes, according to Stanford University's research.
Yahoo
26 minutes ago
- Automotive
- Yahoo
3 Ways Trump's ‘Big Beautiful Bill' Could Hit Tesla Investors
Tesla investors have had a rough go in 2025, with a stock price that's down by more than one-fifth year-to-date and a major slump in global electric vehicle sales. I'm a Self-Made Millionaire: Learn More: Now, the Elon Musk-led company faces more grim news in the form of President Donald Trump's 'Big Beautiful' spending bill, which was signed into law on July 4th. Among other things, the bill will bring an end to federal tax credits on certain EVs. Here are three ways the bill could hit Tesla investors. Tax Credits Will End Federal tax incentives played a big role in boosting Tesla's EV sales in recent years, but those incentives will soon come to an end. Because of Trump's bill, buyers have until Sept. 30 to qualify for the federal tax credits on Tesla EVs before they're terminated, CBS News reported. Before the bill passed, new EVs came with a $7,500 federal tax credit, while used EVs came with credits of up to $4,000. The idea behind the credits was to make EVs more affordable. That's important, because the average purchase price of a new EV is about $9,000 higher in the U.S. than the average new gas-powered car, according to Kelley Blue Book data cited by CBS News. Used EVs cost roughly $2,000 more than comparable gas cars, on average. An end to the tax credit will hurt Tesla — and Tesla shareholders — because it narrows the number of potential EV buyers. I Sold My Tesla: Rival EV Companies Will Get a Boost As Business Insider reported, one key provision in the new bill is that cars made by companies that sold more than 200,000 'accepted' EVs between December 31, 2009 and December 31, 2025 do not qualify for the tax credit. This provision will mainly impact Tesla, which sells a lot more cars than that in a single quarter. In contrast, rivals Rivian and Lucid have not reached the 200,000 milestone, meaning their customers can still get tax credits. This could give them an edge against Tesla, at least over the short term. Sales Could Decline Further Tesla's EV sales have already slumped badly this year. The company recently posted second-quarter car sales of 384,122 — down 13.5% from the previous year, CNN reported. It was the biggest year-over-year decline in Tesla history, and followed a similarly dismal first quarter. Trump's spending bill will likely hurt sales even further because buyers will no longer have the same tax incentives. This means they'll have to dish out more money to buy a Tesla than in the past. 'It's on Tesla to make the case for consumers to even slightly pay up today versus some other EVs,' Seth Goldstein, an equity strategist at Morningstar, told Business Insider. More From GOBankingRates 4 Housing Markets That Have Plummeted in Value Over the Past 5 Years This article originally appeared on 3 Ways Trump's 'Big Beautiful Bill' Could Hit Tesla Investors
Yahoo
26 minutes ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Insider Stock Buying Reaches US$1.60m On Clip Money
Quite a few insiders have dramatically grown their holdings in Clip Money Inc. (CVE:CLIP) over the past 12 months. An insider's optimism about the company's prospects is a positive sign. Although we don't think shareholders should simply follow insider transactions, logic dictates you should pay some attention to whether insiders are buying or selling shares. We've found 21 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free. The Last 12 Months Of Insider Transactions At Clip Money In the last twelve months, the biggest single purchase by an insider was when Independent Director Donald Layden bought CA$845k worth of shares at a price of CA$0.19 per share. So it's clear an insider wanted to buy, at around the current price, which is CA$0.20. That means they have been optimistic about the company in the past, though they may have changed their mind. While we always like to see insider buying, it's less meaningful if the purchases were made at much lower prices, as the opportunity they saw may have passed. Happily, the Clip Money insiders decided to buy shares at close to current prices. While Clip Money insiders bought shares during the last year, they didn't sell. You can see the insider transactions (by companies and individuals) over the last year depicted in the chart below. If you want to know exactly who sold, for how much, and when, simply click on the graph below! Check out our latest analysis for Clip Money Clip Money is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of under-the-radar companies with insider buying. Insider Ownership I like to look at how many shares insiders own in a company, to help inform my view of how aligned they are with insiders. A high insider ownership often makes company leadership more mindful of shareholder interests. Clip Money insiders own about CA$8.1m worth of shares. That equates to 36% of the company. While this is a strong but not outstanding level of insider ownership, it's enough to indicate some alignment between management and smaller shareholders. So What Does This Data Suggest About Clip Money Insiders? There haven't been any insider transactions in the last three months -- that doesn't mean much. But insiders have shown more of an appetite for the stock, over the last year. Insiders own shares in Clip Money and we see no evidence to suggest they are worried about the future. In addition to knowing about insider transactions going on, it's beneficial to identify the risks facing Clip Money. Every company has risks, and we've spotted 6 warning signs for Clip Money (of which 2 can't be ignored!) you should know about. Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies. For the purposes of this article, insiders are those individuals who report their transactions to the relevant regulatory body. We currently account for open market transactions and private dispositions of direct interests only, but not derivative transactions or indirect interests. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Sign in to access your portfolio
